Electing conservatives is the most important part to stopping Obama.
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Yesterday we updated our Senate forecast and reported that the chances of a Republican takeover had improved from our initial forecast. Assessments of the 36 individual elections and our model’s estimates of the probabilities of the parties winning and losing each one of them underlie the prediction. We can examine the 36 elections to map out the most likely path to a Republican takeover and first did so on Feb. 6. With this update, although we see a very similar road to Republican control, there are some interesting amendments and elaborations.

First, a quick refresher. The Republicans hold 30 seats that are not up for election in 2014. To gain control of the Senate, they need 51 because Vice President Biden would cast tie-breaking votes in a 50-50 Senate. Thus the Republicans need to win 21 (of the 36) elections this fall.

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