Market Plunge Revives Fear of 1929

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The Dow Industrials index fell more than 2% Monday, continuing a decline that has been almost steady since the beginning of 2014. The experts blamed Monday’s plunge on bad manufacturing data and an apparent slowdown in China.

The S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations) fell to 16.9%. This is lower than the 18.72 peak of last year, but it’s still astronomically high by historical standards. It was only as recently as 1982 that the P/E index was 6, and it’s about due to return to that level, as it does periodically, every 30 years or so. This would push the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its current 15,400 down to the 3,000-4,000 level, or lower, which is what Generational Dynamics is predicting.

A week ago, I wrote “‘that 1929 feeling’ may be back on Wall Street”. As I said, what I’m looking for is a certain pattern that preceded the 1929 crash.

For the seven weeks preceding the 1929 crash, starting from 9/3/29, the market declined gradually, but with some wild gyrations along the way. That’s the pattern I’m watching for today. The market has, in fact, been declining gradually since Jan 1, but we’ve only begun to see the wild gyrations. If the decline continues, and if there’s a fall of 6% one day, followed by a rise of 8% the next day, or some sort of abrupt change like that, then that would indicate a looming crash.



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