Turnout, enthusiasm, and confidence.

Those are the simple reasons Republican Mitt Romney is likely to win Tuesday’s presidential election.

Recent polls in states previously considered safe for President Barack Obama show that Romney has indeed expanded the map: he is one point up in Minnesota, and dead even in Pennsylvania.

More than that, while Obama issues irritable calls for “revenge,” Romney is closing like a winner.

It seems true that Hurricane Sandy may have given Obama a bit of a bounce, perhaps slowing what seemed like runaway momentum for Romney. Charles Krauthammer, who predicted a narrow Romney win on Friday, noted regardless that Obama had incredible luck: “Napoleon–it is said the one quality he wanted and demanded in generals more than any other was luck. Obama would have been a good general in Napoleon’s army.”

One doubts Obama would have settled for general. But analogies to Napoleon seem particularly apt.

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