Up-to-the-Minute Limbaugh Polling Analysis

I want to go through the latest polling data and some of the other interesting things that are happening out there. It’s fascinating to me to watch all this, to absorb all the polling data, like Quinnipiac is out, got Obama up five in Ohio, but Romney’s winning independents left and right. So much of it is genuinely confusing.

First, from TampaBay.com: “Democrats Face an Early Vote Hurdle in Florida.” Now, as you know, the Suffolk Polling unit pulled out of Florida weeks ago claiming there was no need to poll it anymore. Romney wins Florida. Another polling group pulled out of Florida yesterday, the same thing. They had a poll that showed Romney up six, 51-45. I don’t remember the name of the polling company, doesn’t matter. The Real Clear Politics polling average now has Romney leading Obama by just a single point, up against Suffolk and the other polling unit, which say it’s over and they’ve pulled out.

I’m reading to you from TampaBay.com: “The latest Quinnipiac poll showing Obama up a point is sure to draw some scoffs from Republicans since its sample was 37 percent Democrat, 30 percent Republican, and 29 percent independent.” In summary, all of the polls out there — and there are a few, folks — that show Obama winning in the swing states and that show Obama winning the national popular vote, there are polls that show Obama up one, up three, and up five. And every one of those polls is based on a turnout identical to 2008. So if the turnout next Tuesday is identical to 2008, then these polls are gonna be right and Obama’s gonna win by one, three, or five, whatever. They all depend, every poll that has Obama up, also shows Romney way up in independents but a Democrat sample of minimum plus seven.



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