Pew: Romney Holds Turnout Edge Ahead of Vote

This afternoon, Pew Research is out with its final poll of the 2012 campaign. It finds that Romney continues to hold the edge on voter turnout. By solid margins, Romney supporters are more engaged in the campaign, are following news of the campaign closely and are more likely to vote. It also finds that the Democrats big party ID advantage from 2008 has collapsed. In 2008, among registered voters Democrats held a 12-point lead on party identification. This year, the Democrat lead is just 5 points. That isn’t enough to withstand Romney’s turnout advantage.

Pew’s head-to-head number has Obama leading Romney by 3 points, 48-45. Of course, this shows Obama underperforming, as Democrats have a 4 point edge in the sample. If Democrats only have a 5 point edge among all registered voters, its hard to see how the actual voting electorate will give Democrats a 4 point edge, given the higher propensity of Republicans to vote.

Oddly, Pew takes the 4% undecideds and splits them evenly between the two candidates. This allows the to broadcast a 50-47 Obama lead, hitting the critical 50% threshold that has eluded Obama in most polling this year. It is highly unlikely, though, that undecideds break evenly.



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