If you want to understand why voters no longer trust pollsters, look no further than the latest CNN poll of Ohio voters, showing President Barack Obama with a 50%-47% lead over Gov. Mitt Romney–a result that is within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error, but which suggests a slight Obama lead. The internal numbers reveal that Romney is leading among independents by 2%, and winning Election Day voters by a staggering 13%.

The lead for Obama is based entirely on the poll’s survey of those Ohioans who say they have voted early, or who are likely to vote early.

The hard numbers behind early voting, however–independent from the CNN poll–suggest that Republicans are doing far better than they were in 2008, and that Democrats are lagging significantly in stronghold areas. Turnout models from Gallup and Rasmussen also favor the GOP.

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