Skewed Polls: 33% oversampling of Democrats

It’s a semantic argument only. In the example he gave where there are 40 Democrats and 30 Republicans sampled, the conventional wisdom now — the way of reporting that — is a Democrat-plus-10 sample, and in raw numbers, it is. His point was that it’s much greater than 10 in reality, that it is a 33% increase in the number of Democrats sampled, not 10.

That doesn’t change the outcome. It’s simply his way of driving home how out of proportion the oversampled Democrat polls are. Nothing more than that. You have 40 Democrats and 30 Republicans, and it’s reported as a Democrat plus 10. It is in raw numbers. But in terms of the percentage, that polling unit actually talked to 33% more Democrats than Republicans, which would help to illustrate just how out of kilter such a poll is with such a sample.

When you won’t find a sample like that in election returns. You will not find Democrats plus 10, say in 2010, in terms of people showed up. Turnout, if you will. So it’s just a semantic thing. It doesn’t change the outcome of the poll as reported. It’s just a more accurate way of looking at the out-of-balance situation among those polled.



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