The media polls showing Obama with a solid and consistent lead over Mitt Romney are only accurate IF the democrats equal or improve the turnout they had in 2008. That year, the Democrats had a 7 point advantage over the GOP at the voting booth. It was the Democrats biggest advantage over the GOP in the modern political age. I have long argued that the Democrats were unlikely to repeat their turnout advantage this year. Preliminary data from some key swing states suggests I’m right.

In 2008, in the critical battleground of OH, Democrats had a 14-point advantage over the GOP on absentee ballot requests. McCain actually won the vote on election day in the state, but Obama’s advantage on early voting was so large we was able to win the state. This year, however, the Dem advantage is down to just 5 points so far.

In virtually every county in Ohio, the GOP have improved their position over 2008. In the largest counties, their position relative to Dems has improved 6-27 points. If these numbers hold up over the next few weeks, there is no way Dems will have another big turnout advantage over the GOP in OH.

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