Close Polls Don’t Jibe with Mittmentum Vibe

There’s a great analysis — well, “great.” It’s an interesting analysis from a guy National Review Online on why polling data out of Ohio may not be all that accurate. It has to do with early voting and likely voters being tabbed and how the party affiliation in a poll ends up being tabulated. All the early voting and absentee ballots in Ohio may be skewing the actual polling data.

It really is an interesting analysis. You couple it with looking at the two campaigns. We call it momentum or Mittmentum, but if you look at the Obama campaign — and this is speaking with you honestly. I look at these polls and I have to just be blatantly up front with you. I’m stunned Obama’s within two or three. This, to me, is a seven- or eight-point or nine-point win. I mean, just the whole aura of the Obama campaign.

There’s nothing to it. It’s in abject panic. They’re losing in various swing states. Obama, by the way… Do you remember back in 2000 when George Bush continued to spend money in California? I was thinking about this the other night because Obama’s still spending money in North Carolina, and it’s over there. He’s spending money in North Carolina because he will not allow the perception that he’s losing.

So he’s wasting money in North Carolina. He could be spending it elsewhere. Bush did the same thing in 2000. Bush campaigned in California in the latter days of that campaign. I remember when we saw that happening, we talked about it on this program. We got a little excited. We thought, “Why, is there something going on in California that we don’t know about?”



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