Don’t Let Bogus Polls Depress You

The problem out there is Rasmussen. Rasmussen has the race tied at 46, and Rasmussen has been one of the leading polling units in presidential races for a long time. So here comes CBS, the New York Times, and Quinnipiac. They’ve got this race over in these three swing states, and yet, there’s Rasmussen out there today: 46-46. There’s Gallup out there. Gallup doesn’t show any of this, and Gallup’s got Obama disapproval rising. It’s all over the place: Nine points in Florida, ten points Ohio, 12 points in Pennsylvania.

What we aren’t told? Let me tell you what we’re not told (and this according to their own data): They oversample Democrats by 7% in Florida, where Obama is up by nine points. They oversample Democrats by 11 points in Pennsylvania, where Obama is up 12. They oversample Democrats. Here are the numbers. In Florida: Democrat 43%, Republican 36%, independent 1%. In Pennsylvania: 48% Democrat, 37% Republican, independents 1%.

So you have an 11%-plus advantage for Democrats in Pennsylvania and a 7% Democrat plus advantage in Florida. What they’re telling us… What’s this guy’s name at Quinnipiac? Miringoff. Lee Miringoff runs this. What he’s saying is that he expects the turnout in, let’s say Florida, to be 43% Democrats, 36% Republican, and 1% independent. That’s what he expects turnout to be. These guys are going back and using the turnout from 2004 and 2008. They’re ignoring 2010.



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