Some Presidential Poll History
Here’s some polling data from October 24-26, 1980, ’cause I heard Brit Hume today say… By the way, folks, on this whole business of you being despondent and depressed… I don’t know how many of you are, but I’m telling you: The conservative media out there need the vapors. They’re about ready to toss it in. You know, they live in this media bubble. They live and work in it, and consider themselves part of it, and they’re totally freaked out. They believe every poll that comes out.
To the extent that you read them and access them, I just want to warn you: You’re gonna be hit with fatalism like you haven’t seen before. For example, Hume said on Fox this morning, “Well, you gotta keep in mind that the candidate who is ahead in the polls in mid-September rarely loses.” Well, does anybody remember Carter and Reagan? It wasn’t until the week before the election that the polls started showing the truth of that election. An October 24th, 25th, 26th, 1980, Gallup poll had Carter leading Reagan by three among likely voters; eight points among registered voters.
Reagan ends up winning by ten percentage points.