“A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” they’ve never missed, “forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,” and he will win 320 electoral votes. It’s a University of Colorado analysis. It’s not a poll. It’s an “analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,” and they haven’t missed.

“The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. “‘Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,’ said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.

“According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1%, when considering only the two major political parties.” Now, that doesn’t factor a third party or minuscule write-ins. They just look at the two primary candidates.

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