There is a compelling divergence regarding President Obama’s reelection chances when we consider what the poll numbers are telling us versus what the boots on the ground are indicating.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News nationwide poll taken during June 20-24 shows that Obama still leads the presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 47% to 44%. These results are within the poll’s margin of error and are also close to the Real Clear Politics aggregation of major polls which finds Obama leading Romney 47.5% to 43.8%.
The same WSJ/NBC news poll found Obama leading Romney 50% to 42% in twelve so-called battleground states when considered as a group. However, when we observe the actions by those Democratic politicians up for reelection this fall in those battleground states and other states, that is their general reluctance to stand alongside President Obama, another story is told. These politicians are more in tune with the local voters and are distancing themselves from Obama. This may be indicative that Obama’s support is not as high as it appears to be according to pollsters.