Five months before Election Day, you’d think there would be no better harbinger about who will win the White House than a contentious statewide vote in a critical battleground state that never moved on from the 2010 campaign.

You’d be wrong.

Yes, there will be tea leaves to read after Wisconsin voters decide Tuesday whether to recall rookie Republican Gov. Scott Walker, a tea party-supported GOP hero who might be the only politician in America to rival President Barack Obama in contentious achievement that inspires loathing among opponents.

A win for Walker and some will say Mitt Romney is sure to be the first GOP candidate to carry Wisconsin since the party’s last winner here: Ronald Reagan in 1984. A loss for Walker will lead others to say the presumptive Republican nominee should give up on the state.

Don’t listen.

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