Romney lead small in Arizona

The Republican race for President in Arizona looks like a close one, with Mitt Romney leading Rick Santorum only 36-33. Newt Gingrich is third at 16% and Ron Paul fourth at 9%.

Santorum is better liked by Arizona Republicans than Romney, but the gap isn’t as wide as we’re finding in a lot of other states. Santorum’s at +34 (61/27), while Romney’s at +24 (58/34).

One thing to keep an eye on over the next week is whether Newt Gingrich can hold his support. 16% is pretty good for him compared to what we’re finding other places right now, but only 46% of his voters say they’re solidly committed to him. 40% of his supporters say that Santorum is their second choice, compared to only 25% for Romney. If Gingrich’s supporters see he’s not viable and decide to jump ship the race could get even closer.

John McCain’s endorsement isn’t doing Romney a whole lot of good in Arizona. Only 15% of voters say they’re more likely to vote for a McCain endorsed candidate, compared to 30% who consider it a negative, and 53% who say it doesn’t make a difference either way.



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