Some economic news. “The number of people seeking unemployment benefits dipped slightly last week, though not by enough to suggest that hiring is picking up. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits declined 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 402,000.” Still over 400,000.
Now, folks, for the last two weeks I have seen e-mails. Gallup has subscribers. You can be an e-mail subscriber. I don’t think it costs anything. It’s just like checking off a box on their website and they’ll send you updates, newsletters, whatever it is. For the last two weeks I have seen unemployment data, little blurbs three or four lines from Gallup, and the one that came in just today predicts, based on their own unemployment figures, Gallup’s, their own surveys, they are expecting the government to report an unemployment figure of under 9% this week.
Then there is a story out there that the US economy has expanded at a two and a half percent rate. This is a Wall Street Journal news alert: “US Gross domestic product grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.5% from July through September, the strongest performance in a year.” Where? Where is this 2.5% government growth? Nobody sees it. And if the unemployment rate, if Gallup’s right, and this story from AP does not tend to indicate that that’s gonna be true, I mean if we’re still at 402,000 applications for unemployment. And you know this is gonna be revised upward next week. They’re always wrong on the low side. So if this week’s new claims number is revised up by the amount it usually is, it will turn out to have gone up.