In projecting the program’s costs, the Congressional Budget Office figures that about 7 percent of the workforce currently covered by employer-provided insurance will drop those policies and sign up for the subsidized insurance. That estimate – and hence, the cost structure of the program – has been challenged by sources such as McKinsey & Company, the consulting firm, which reckons a far higher percentage of workers will opt out of their current job-based plans. In a survey of employers released in June, McKinsey found that 30 percent will “definitely or probably” drop their coverage as Obamacare kicks into high gear in 2014. Among “employers with a high awareness of reform, this proportion rises to more than 50 percent,” says the report. Why? It will be cheaper to pay fines than to provide coverage.

If those estimates are accurate, the cost savings ObamaCare supporters tout are a pipe dream.

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